• Kim Wiley
    415-519-5595
  • Todd Wiley
    415-317-5888
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San Francisco Real Estate and the Coronavirus April 7, 2020

 

San Francisco Real Estate and the Coronavirus

 

compass

San Francisco Real Estate

and the Coronavirus

 

April 2020 Report

————

 

The first thing to remember is that there is a time lag – usually 3 to 6+ weeks – between a new listing coming on market, an offer being negotiated and accepted, and when the transaction actually closes sale. This means that almost all of the sales price data we have, as of the first week of April, still reflects the market BEFORE the shelter-in-place rules went into effect. In virtually all Bay Area counties, first quarter and March median sales prices were quite strong.

This report will look at the effect of the crisis on supply and demand by reviewing week by week statistics, sales price trends reflecting the market before the crisis, and longer-term trend data to give context to how the market typically performs at this time of year. Spring is usually the most active selling season and often sees the highest median sales prices of the calendar year, due to both the level of buyer demand and the seasonal surge in the luxury home market. (A higher percentage of luxury home sales pulls up the overall median sales price.)

We do not know how the crisis will ultimately play out, depending as it does on so many, rapidly changing, socio-economic factors.

 

Median Sales Price Trends

 

These first 4 charts review median sales price trends in the short, medium and long-term. March and first quarter prices generally reflect the pre-crisis market.

Link to our San Francisco home price map

Link to our Bay Area home price map 

 

Shelter-in-Place Effect on Inventory & Deals

– by Week

 

The following 4 charts detail the plunge in listing and accepted-offer activity, and the surge in listings being pulled off the market by sellers, over the past 4 weeks. Typically, at this time of year, the first 3 charts would be seeing steady climbs over February numbers, and the 4th chart would have a very low, flat trend line.

Though the numbers are way down, some listings have still been going into contract.

 

Average Days on Market by Month

 

Those listings that did go into contract in March – a much lower number than normal – apparently did so quite quickly after coming on market, presumably seizing the attention of buyers despite the crisis. Or the buyers and sellers may already have been in the midst of negotiations when shelter in place rules began.

 

The Luxury Home Market

 

The luxury market is fiercely seasonal, and typically spring (Q2) sees the peak in annual sales volumes. Higher-price home sales are often more deeply affected by financial-market crises since affluent households tend to have more wealth tied up in the markets, and watch their movements more closely.

 

These next 2 charts look at weekly trends in the markets for homes of $2.5 million+ and of $5m+.

 

Normal Market Seasonality Trends

 

These 2 charts illustrate how seasonality typically affects supply and demand, both climbing rapidly from the beginning of the year through late spring.

 



The Wiley Team
Todd Wiley DRE# 01410925
Kim Wiley DRE# 01964194
415.317.5888 & 415.519.5595
wileyteam@compass.com

© Compass 2020 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYC

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under
multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075,
1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material presented
herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable
but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without
notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square
footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity.

 

 

March 2020 Market Report San Francisco Real Estate April 1, 2020

March 2020 Market Report San Francisco Real Estate

 

compass
March 2020 Market Report San Francisco Real Estate

 

————

 

There is a lot going on in the world right now and we won’t pretend to know how things will turn out or affect the local real estate market over the next few months. In the meantime, this report will look at the most recent data available, though the impact of the wild volatility in the financial markets and the unfolding situation with the coronavirus has yet to show up in reliable statistics. Typically, the spring selling season is the most active of the year.

One positive for real estate is that mortgage interest rates hit a historic low in early March, as illustrated below, and rates play a huge role in housing affordability.

As always, please don’t hesitate to let us know if we can be of assistance in any way. We wish you and yours safety and health in these challenging days.

 

Short-Term & Long-Term Trends

in Median Home Sales Prices

 

Median Dollar per Square Foot Values

 

Mortgage Interest Rates Hit New All-Time Low

 

Home Sales Breakdown

 

Listing Inventory vs. Sales since 2005

 

Trends in Overbidding Asking Price

 

Overbidding remains common and at high levels for house listings in particular, however part of this is due strategic under-pricing on the part of listing agents. The supply and demand dynamic for condos has been affected over the last few years by new-condo inventory coming on market.

 

The Extreme Seasonality of Real Estate Markets

 

After the mid-winter doldrums, we would typically start seeing a huge jump in sales as the spring market gets underway. Remember that sales are about a month behind the market, i.e. sales in one month mostly reflect new listings and offers accepted in the previous month.

 

Home Sales & Values by San Francisco District

 

District Home Price Trends

 

There are 70+ neighborhoods in ten Realtor districts in San Francisco – too many to cover in one newsletter. Below are some representative snapshots, but we also have trend data on every neighborhood in the city, which can be supplied upon request.

 



The Wiley Team
Todd Wiley DRE# 01410925
Kim Wiley DRE# 01964194
415.317.5888 & 415.519.5595
wileyteam@compass.com

© Compass 2020 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYC

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under
multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075,
1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material presented
herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable
but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without
notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square
footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity.

 

 

  • Todd Wiley : 415-317-5888
    todd@sanfranciscorealestategroup.com
  • Kim Wiley : 415-519-5595
    kim@sanfranciscorealestategroup.com
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