Shelter-in-place caused steep drops in activity across the board in what is typically the busiest selling season of the year. However, though still far below normal levels, activity has been picking up since bottoming out in late March/early April, and will presumably continue to do so with the easing of both shelter-in-place and property-showing rules.

The only way to clearly perceive the recent changes in the market – sudden plunge and the beginning of recovery – is by looking at WEEKLY trends in buyer and seller activity. These are illustrated in this first chart below.

Generally speaking, the first months of 2020 have been characterized by year-over-year increases – often considerable – in median home sales prices across the Bay Area.

The next series of charts reflects the dramatic changes in market dynamics by MONTH as compared to spring 2019. These don’t illustrate the uptick in activity in the most recent weeks.

At the end of April, mortgage interest rates hit a new historic low.

We are not going to review the economic news already extensively covered in the media, except for this stark illustration of the unparalleled rise in unemployment. How quickly this horrifying trend can be reversed will probably be the single largest factor behind an economic recovery.

These first 4 charts review median sales price trends in the short, medium and long-term. March and first quarter prices generally reflect the pre-crisis market.

The following 4 charts detail the plunge in listing and accepted-offer activity, and the surge in listings being pulled off the market by sellers, over the past 4 weeks. Typically, at this time of year, the first 3 charts would be seeing steady climbs over February numbers, and the 4th chart would have a very low, flat trend line.

Those listings that did go into contract in March – a much lower number than normal – apparently did so quite quickly after coming on market, presumably seizing the attention of buyers despite the crisis. Or the buyers and sellers may already have been in the midst of negotiations when shelter in place rules began.

The luxury market is fiercely seasonal, and typically spring (Q2) sees the peak in annual sales volumes. Higher-price home sales are often more deeply affected by financial-market crises since affluent households tend to have more wealth tied up in the markets, and watch their movements more closely.

These next 2 charts look at weekly trends in the markets for homes of $2.5 million+ and of $5m+.

These 2 charts illustrate how seasonality typically affects supply and demand, both climbing rapidly from the beginning of the year through late spring.

There is a lot going on in the world right now and we won’t pretend to know how things will turn out or affect the local real estate market over the next few months. In the meantime, this report will look at the most recent data available, though the impact of the wild volatility in the financial markets and the unfolding situation with the coronavirus has yet to show up in reliable statistics. Typically, the spring selling season is the most active of the year.

Overbidding remains common and at high levels for house listings in particular, however part of this is due strategic under-pricing on the part of listing agents. The supply and demand dynamic for condos has been affected over the last few years by new-condo inventory coming on market.

After the mid-winter doldrums, we would typically start seeing a huge jump in sales as the spring market gets underway. Remember that sales are about a month behind the market, i.e. sales in one month mostly reflect new listings and offers accepted in the previous month.

There are 70+ neighborhoods in ten Realtor districts in San Francisco – too many to cover in one newsletter. Below are some representative snapshots, but we also have trend data on every neighborhood in the city, which can be supplied upon request.